Separating the Signal from the Noise in Evaluating the Dollar
The Weekly Globe: in this article, we will explain the importance of differentiating noise from structural signals about the direction of the US dollar and we will discuss expectations in the short and long term.
By Eduardo Coccaro, Strategy Analyst
The US dollar went through a depreciation cycle at the end of last year, but the beginning of 2025 has been marked by the opposite movement. Among the reasons that explain this change of direction is the reassessment of the aggressiveness of the new US trade policy. In terms of the Brazilian real, local fundamentals did not change, which made additional appreciation difficult.
In this article, we will explain the importance of differentiating noise from structural signals about the direction of the US dollar and we will discuss expectations in the short and long term.
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